La posizione di Tony Blair
Talk to anyone in the political or business community outside of Britain today and there is only one question on their lips: ‘Are you guys seriously going to leave Europe?’ The incredulity with which they ask reflects their view of the wisdom of leaving. Of course, they could all be wrong. But the near-universal opinion of friends and interested parties outside the UK should make those of us inside the UK pause.
Up to last Wednesday I would answer confidently (though not always feeling it): no, we’re staying in Europe. After David Cameron’s speech, in which, for the first time since we joined Europe almost 40 years ago, a leader of a party with a chance of governing has said it will be its policy to put leaving to a referendum, I can’t give that answer. The answer has to be: maybe. That is a momentous decision. It has vast implications for our economy and our position in the world.
The irony is that I could agree with 90 per cent of what David Cameron said in his speech. I agree with him that Europe has to reform and do so now with greater urgency following the financial crisis. I agree, too, with his defence of why Britain should stay as a full member of the European Union. On this 90 per cent, I and many others would work with him. It was the ten per cent sting in the tail where we part company: that if we don’t get what we want, we should quit.
In the first part, we are making a case for reform in Europe, so as to make Europe competitive and create jobs. That is a debate for all 27 countries. In the second, we are putting into play Britain’s membership. That is one versus 26.
Where we argue for reform in Europe, we’re making a case made by successive British PMs. It can be two steps forward, one step back. However, contrary to popular conception, by and large the UK has been adept at blocking things we don’t like and getting things we do.
When David Cameron speaks of reform, many European heads are nodding. But they stop sharply when he switches country-leader hat for party-leader hat and threatens British exit. Then our allies suspect this is not about Europe or Britain, but about tensions within his party and they cease being allies.
So why does Britain’s membership of the EU matter? In 1946, Winston Churchill made his famous speech in Zurich calling for a United States of Europe.
He saw a continent ravaged by centuries of conflict and recently by two world wars. He saw France and Germany – enemies in those wars – becoming friends in a new union. The rationale for Europe was simple – peace not war.
In 2013, there is a new rationale and one that is stronger, clearer and more enduring: not peace, but power. The geo-political landscape of the 21st Century is undergoing a revolution. The question for Britain is: what is the best vantage point for us in this new landscape?
At the end of the 19th Century, Britain was the world’s greatest power. At the end of the 20th Century, it was the USA. At the end of the 21st Century it will likely be China or, at the very least, China and possibly India will be as powerful as the USA. We have to understand how profound this change is and how it will impact us.
China has a population double that of Europe and the US put together, and India not far off it. A nation such as Indonesia – now on its way up – has three times more people than Germany. Today this counts economically and politically. Slowly but surely the size of a nation’s economy is becoming aligned with the size of its population. Why? Because technology and money are now mobile and, provided a country is part of the world’s markets, in time, size matters.
So for the UK and similar-sized countries in Europe, we have to face the fact that in the future there will be many countries bigger than us and some, such as Mexico and the Philippines, with populations double ours. At present the EU is the most powerful political union and biggest business market in the world. We will need it to remain at the top and we will need to be part of it.
This is why in other parts of the world – in the Far East and in Latin America, even in Africa – new emerging countries are also forming blocs. They do this to leverage power. You get the weight together that you can’t get on your own.
For the UK, therefore, to leave the bloc right on its doorstep would be an extraordinary denial of its own interests. Britain is a big player and should remain one. It has two huge alliances: with the US and with Europe. Use them, leverage them, build on them. Don’t throw them away. The permanent discomfort of losing them will be infinitely greater than the periodic discomfort of maintaining them.
So, for sure, we should argue with passion for Europe to recognise why it must change. Globalisation and technology mean we have to; so does demography.
The average age of people in Europe in the Eighties was early 30s. Today it is moving towards early 40s. All of these things mean that public services, welfare, pensions – the whole way the State is run – have to change.
We should lead the case for Europe to change. But we can’t do it if we’re not in it.
Europe is in crisis now because, though a single currency for a single market makes sense long-term, the way the euro was created subordinated the economics to the politics. That was the design flaw and was always the UK’s problem with it, so that though the political case for Britain being in the euro was plain, the economic case wasn’t; and since it is an economic and monetary union, the economics had to be right. So Britain stayed out.
But that is a wholly different thing to separating ourselves out from the EU altogether. That is where putting our membership into play is such a risk.
We don’t know yet what reforms we will seek; or get. We don’t know what the rest of Europe will decide. The referendum won’t happen for four or five years. The only certain thing is the uncertainty.
That is why UKIP is rejoicing and it really doesn’t matter what David Cameron comes back with by way of a deal. It will never be enough for them. They’re like the old Left in the Labour Party or the new Right in the fringe parties of Europe and the Tea Party in the US. They have a perfect right to make their point. But they shouldn’t decide the policy of a serious nation.
In 1946, Churchill gave his blessing to the French-German rapprochement. But he didn’t feel the need for Britain to be part of it. So we weren’t. We spent the next 20 years trying to get in. It is important not to repeat that pattern. I believe there is a sensible, solid majority in the UK for us to stay in Europe. It is time to start mobilising it.
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